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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 76

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(7:56) 2-D.Colquitt punts 52 yards to IND 24, Center-41-J.Winchester. 34-J.Ferguson MUFFS catch, touched at IND 24, recovered by IND-30-R.Melvin at IND 23. 30-R.Melvin to IND 23 for no gain (14-D.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.07 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 76, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.79 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 34, worth -1.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP