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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 59

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(4:11) 1-P.McAfee punts 41 yards to KC 18, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.73 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 59, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 18, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model