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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 73

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(:51) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to IND 29, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 15-P.Dorsett.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.47 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 73, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 31, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model