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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 15

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(10:25) 5-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.94 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 15, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP