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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 62

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 30

What Actually Happened

(2:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck scrambles up the middle to KC 45 for 17 yards (20-S.Nelson).

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.09 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 62, worth -1.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 21, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model