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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 15 at the 40

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 30

What Actually Happened

(:07) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete short left to 81-D.Street (20-S.Nelson). IND-15-P.Dorsett was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +1.38 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.04 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -0.22 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.28 EP