Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 78

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

(9:02) 1-P.McAfee punts 43 yards to KC 35, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.00 EP
68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 78, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model