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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 10

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 5-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.60 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 10, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model