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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 55

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(1:39) 1-P.McAfee punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.15 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 55, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 16, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model