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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 10

Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(12:49) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.98 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 10, worth +0.19 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model