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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 85

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(11:35) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 41 yards to CHI 44, Center-47-K.McDermott. 22-C.LeBlanc to MIN 43 for 13 yards (26-T.Waynes).

The Three Options

GO -2.95 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.97 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 85, worth -5.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 43, worth -2.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model