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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 12

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(:30) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.47 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 12, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +2.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 22, worth -0.39 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model