4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 63

Chicago Bears 20 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(9:00) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 53 yards to MIN 10, Center-48-P.Scales. 14-S.Diggs to MIN 17 for 7 yards (27-S.McManis).

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.98 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 63, worth -3.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model