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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 25

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Chicago Bears 20

What Actually Happened

(5:47) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.37 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 35, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP