4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 35

Chicago Bears 20 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(:15) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 37 yards to MIN -2, Center-48-P.Scales. 14-S.Diggs to MIN 2 for 4 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski).

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +0.62 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 35, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 45, worth -0.37 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.58 EP