Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 76

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 3

(6:51) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 71 yards to CHI 5, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-84-C.Patterson.

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.19 EP
67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 76, worth -4.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model