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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 88

Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(5:26) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to 50, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds. Head Linesman Ed Walker (#123) injured on the play

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.77 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 88, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 46, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP