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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 43

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(4:34) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-47-K.McDermott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.13 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 43, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP