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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 79

Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(3:22) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to MIN 28, Center-48-P.Scales. 19-A.Thielen to MIN 32 for 4 yards (29-H.Jones-Quartey).

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.69 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 79, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 36, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model