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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 59

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(1:27) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 40 yards to CHI 19, Center-47-K.McDermott. 22-C.LeBlanc to CHI 26 for 7 yards (84-C.Patterson).

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.93 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 59, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 18, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP