Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 17 at the 68

New England Patriots 14 – Buffalo Bills 3

(14:05) 6-R.Allen punts 41 yards to BUF 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-B.Tate to BUF 29 for 2 yards (43-N.Ebner).

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.59 EP
73% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 68, worth -3.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model