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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 31

Buffalo Bills 10 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(:32) 2-D.Carpenter 49 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +3.92 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 31, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.55 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 41, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model