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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 80

Buffalo Bills 10 – New England Patriots 31

What Actually Happened

(12:41) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt to BUF 10 for -10 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at BUF 11. 6-C.Schmidt pushed ob at BUF 36 for 25 yards (36-B.King).

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.92 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 80, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 37, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.61 EP