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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Buffalo Bills
4th & 3 at the 26
Buffalo Bills 10 – New England Patriots 31
What Actually Happened
(8:04) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor up the middle for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. QB draw.
The Three Options
GO
+1.79 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.61 EP
- 52% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 26, worth -0.87 EP
KICK
+1.40 EP
- 81% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
- 19% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 36, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT
+0.07 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
