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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 14

New England Patriots 38 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(7:10) 3-S.Gostkowski 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.71 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model