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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 14 at the 70

New York Jets 7 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(10:50) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 57 yards to CLE 13, Center-46-T.Purdum. 29-D.Johnson Jr. to CLE 28 for 15 yards (49-T.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.21 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 70, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 28, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model