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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 49

Cleveland Browns 10 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(8:50) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 34 yards to NYJ 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 89-J.Marshall.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.58 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -1.65 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model