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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 75

New York Jets 7 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(1:34) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 33 yards to CLE 42, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-53-M.Catapano.

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.58 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 75, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 32, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model