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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 9

Cleveland Browns 17 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(:04) 3-C.Parkey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.94 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 9, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model