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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 13 at the 37

Cleveland Browns 20 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(5:21) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 21 yards to NYJ 16, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 89-J.Marshall.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.51 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 37, worth -1.74 EP
KICK -0.07 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model