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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 14 at the 49

New York Jets 28 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(5:36) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 48 yards to CLE 1, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-32-J.Burris.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.22 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -1.45 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model