4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 6

New York Jets 28 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(4:08) 2-N.Folk 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.11 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 6, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model