4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 20

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(14:55) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.05 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 20, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT +0.64 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model