Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 11 at the 65

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(10:34) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 62 yards to DAL 3, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 20 for 17 yards (53-N.Bradham). PENALTY on DAL-45-R.Smith, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 10. Whitehead got to the 20 yard line prior to the penalty

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.35 EP
68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 65, worth -3.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model