Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 12 at the 81

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(11:58) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 43 yards to PHI 38, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.90 EP
66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 81, worth -4.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model