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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 55

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(10:42) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 39 yards to PHI 16, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 43-D.Sproles MUFFS catch, and recovers at PHI 16. PENALTY on DAL-45-R.Smith, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at PHI 16.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.71 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 55, worth -2.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 16, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP