4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 5

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

What Actually Happened

(1:00) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.10 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 5, worth +0.37 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP