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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 31

Dallas Cowboys 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 23

What Actually Happened

(11:34) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.33 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 31, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.98 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 41, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model