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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 69

Philadelphia Eagles 23 – Dallas Cowboys 23

What Actually Happened

(1:54) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 29 yards to DAL 40, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-47-T.Burton.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.22 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 69, worth -2.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 27, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model