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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 60

Dallas Cowboys 23 – Philadelphia Eagles 23

What Actually Happened

(1:24) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.60 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 60, worth -2.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 19, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model