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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 2

Washington Commanders 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(8:21) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +3.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.58 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 2, worth +0.49 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.54 EP