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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 33

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(3:29) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.10 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 43, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model