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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 69

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(1:28) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to WAS 27, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.02 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 69, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 27, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model