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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 38

Washington Commanders 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(:04) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 55 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +1.88 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 38, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 47, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model