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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 76

Washington Commanders 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(9:25) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 42 yards to CIN 34, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 24-A.Jones to CIN 36 for 2 yards (93-T.Murphy).

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model