Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 80

Washington Commanders 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 27

What Actually Happened

(5:59) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to CIN 29, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 24-A.Jones to CIN 34 for 5 yards (54-M.Foster). FUMBLES (54-M.Foster), recovered by CIN-53-M.Flowers at CIN 28. 53-M.Flowers to CIN 28 for no gain (96-H.Bates). PENALTY on CIN-53-M.Flowers, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.13 EP
61% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 80, worth -4.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model