Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 68

Cincinnati Bengals 27 – Washington Commanders 24

(3:27) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 58 yards to WAS 10, Center-46-C.Harris. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 33 for 23 yards (33-R.Burkhead).

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.34 EP
64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 68, worth -3.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model