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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 61

Cincinnati Bengals 27 – Washington Commanders 27

What Actually Happened

(:11) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +0.42 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 61, worth -0.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT +0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 20, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model