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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 18

Washington Commanders 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(13:17) 79-T.Nsekhe reported in as eligible. 32-R.Kelley right tackle to CIN 18 for no gain (27-D.Kirkpatrick).

The Three Options

GO +2.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.68 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 18, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 28, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model