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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 23

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(13:42) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.66 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model